{"id":274,"date":"2014-09-18T21:27:17","date_gmt":"2014-09-18T19:27:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/main.cse-initiative.eu\/?p=274"},"modified":"2014-09-18T21:43:56","modified_gmt":"2014-09-18T19:43:56","slug":"novorussia-independent-associated-or-confederated","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/main.cse-initiative.eu\/?p=274","title":{"rendered":"Novorussia: Independent, Associated or (Con)federated?"},"content":{"rendered":"

By The Saker<\/strong><\/p>\n

An important disclaimer, caveat and clarification<\/strong><\/p>\n

September 02, 2014 “ICH<\/a>” – \u00a0First, I will begin by a clear disclaimer which I ask you all to please carefully read and then keep in mind: I personally am not advocating any option for the final status of Novorussia.\u00a0 That is for the people of Novorussia to decide<\/strong> and any option that they will chose I will support.\u00a0 Furthermore, at this point in time I am not even personally sure what option I would recommend if asked to do so simply because the devil is in the details, not the big words.\u00a0 What I propose to do below is to look at a number of issues related to this question but that analysis should not be interpreted as a personal endorsement of any solution.<\/p>\n

Second, I have carefully parsed the news out of Minsk, Novorussia and Russia and I am left with the strong feeling that nothing has really been decided<\/strong>, hence the apparent zig-zags and changing interpretations over the terms offered by the Novorussian delegation.<\/p>\n

Third, I urge everybody to be extremely cautious with Russian news sources including Russian TV channels and RT.\u00a0 Why?\u00a0 Because Russia has a major stake in this fight and that I am absolutely certain that the Russian elites are split on what the best solution would be for Russia<\/strong>.\u00a0 There are also informal, shall we say, “groups of like-minded people” inside the Russian media who are trying to promote the interest of their patrons and supporters.\u00a0 And while it is would be an oversimplification to say that, for example, NTV stands for “position A” while RT stands for “position B”, I know for a fact that inside RT, NTV, Rossia, REN-TV and the rest of various groups have various agendas: one editorial board might have a very different position than another one, even inside the same media outlet.<\/p>\n

Fourth, Russian interests should not be automatically conflated with the interests of Novorussia<\/strong>, just as the interests of the Russian and Novorussian elites should not be conflated with the interests of the Russian and Novorussian people<\/strong>.\u00a0 Seems obvious, but I feel that this should be clearly stated again because any agreement on the final status of Novorussia will be the resulting vector of the goals many very different interests groups and almost certainly end up being a compromise from which nobody will walk away with everything they want<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Having said that, now let’s look at how this all began.
\n
\nHow did we get here?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Six months ago all the eastern Ukrainians wanted were a) guarantees for the Russian language and b) fiscal autonomy.\u00a0 That’s it.\u00a0 Nothing else.\u00a0 As for Russia, her position was equally clear: a united and neutral Ukraine respectful of the civil rights of all its citizens. Sounds like a no-brainer, right?<\/p>\n

As for the Ukrainian opposition, it officially wanted to remove an oligarch-controlled government and sign an Association with the EU.\u00a0 Again, pretty straightforward.<\/p>\n

Now, think of it, a compromise solution was rather obvious: the election of a new, non-oligarch controlled government which would sign an Association agreement with the EU and commit itself to the civil rights of all Ukrainians, including the cultural and linguistic rights of the eastern Ukrainians.\u00a0 Yanukovich even went as far as to offer Iatseniuk the post of Prime Minister.\u00a0 So why did it not happen?<\/p>\n

Because the protest movement was completely co-opted, hijacked, manipulated, controlled, financed, organized and run by the USA who used EU political elites and a group of bona fide<\/em> Nazis to achieve regime change and draw the Ukraine into the AngloZionist sphere of influence.\u00a0 What they wanted was a Ukraine economically exploited by the EU and militarily owned by the US via NATO.\u00a0 This plan centered on not only severing away the Ukraine from Russia and its economic union with Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and others, but to also on severing the economic ties between Russia and Europe (an old US goal dating from the Cold War when the US did everything it could to prevent the USSR from selling gas to western Europe).<\/p>\n

You can think of the Nazi freaks as the Ukie equivalent of al-Qaeda or ISIS: rabid hateful murderous lunatics who literally cannot contain their hatred and desire to oppress and murder.\u00a0 Of course, under US pressure, they tried very hard to act like sane and civilized people, but time and again they failed, hence the references to Russian speakers as sub-humans\/non-humans, Timoshenko’s desire to use nukes to exterminate the “accursed Moskals”, the apparently crazy insistence that only Ukrainian be an official language or the equally imbecile categorical refusal of any form of federation.\u00a0 Needless to say, as soon as these crazies got to power, they immediately passed a series of fantastically stupid and provocative laws such as the re-authorization of Nazi propaganda or the repeal of the official status of the Russian language.\u00a0 Unsurprisingly, the folks in the east freaked out and correctly concluded that “the Nazis are back”.<\/p>\n

As a result, a double dynamic was created: the crazies in the USA (the Neocons) directly threatened the vital\/existential interests of Russia while the crazies in Kiev (the Nazis) directly threatened the vital\/existential interests of the population of eastern and southern Ukraine.\u00a0 In doing so they left the Donbass and Russia no other option than to react and directly respond to that danger.<\/p>\n

This is important because what has been done cannot be simply wished away and undone.\u00a0 Both Russia and Novorussia are now in a “survival mode” in which nothing short of a full elimination of these vital\/existential threats will do.\u00a0 In other words, the US Empire’s AngloZionist project AND the Ukie Nazi experiment must absolutely and definitely be defeated and conditions must be created which will forever prevent it’s reemergence.<\/p>\n

Where do we stand now?<\/strong><\/p>\n

First, I would argue that the Junta repression force (JRF<\/strong>) has been defeated.\u00a0 Not strategically (if only because it enjoys an immense strategic depth and still huge human and material resources), but operationally.\u00a0 All the signs are that the Novorussian Armed Forces (NAF<\/strong>) are careful not to over-play their hand or push too far to the west, so things look very good for Novorussia right now.\u00a0 Second, the Junta has also been defeated politically: if in the past the Ukrainian people had an oligarch-controlled government, now they have a government of oligarchs.\u00a0 And they know it.\u00a0 Furthermore, the Nazis have shown their true face (Odessa, Mariupol, MH17, MLRS and ballistic missiles used on civilians with white phosphor and cluster munitions, etc.).\u00a0 Third, predictably, the Ukie economy is in free fall and for all practical purposes the Ukie industry is dead.\u00a0 I would call that a full-spectrum failure for the Junta.<\/p>\n

Uncle Sam is not doing much better: Crimea is lost forever, the Donbass is also lost for all practical purpose, Putin is more popular than ever, the EU tensions with the US are up (the Czech and Slovak republics have both announced that they will veto any further sanctions against Russia), and the US puppet-junta in Kiev has completely lost control of the situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\"rasmussen\"<\/a><\/em><\/em>
\nart by Josetxo Ezcurra<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

As for the EU, it truly screwed-up badly.\u00a0 The recent election of Donald Tusk and Federica Mogherini to the positions of President of the EU Council and EU Foreign Policy Chief is definitely good news, but it is also too little too late.\u00a0 The mess left behind by Catherine Ashton and Herman Van Rompuy will take years of painful efforts to clear.\u00a0 Besides, that other crazy, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, is still there, every bit as crazy and pathetic as always.\u00a0 But for all the hot air blowing out of Rasmussen and a few more EU politicians, the EU has no stomach for more sanctions, much less so an ugly sanctions war with Russia.\u00a0 The Russians know that, and so all they have to do now is wait for the fruit to become ripe (or rotten, really) and fall down on their lap.<\/p>\n

There will be a NATO summit next week in Wales were Obama and his Neocon coterie of foreign policy advisors will most definitely push for a series of anti-Russian measure backed by very loud and macho statement about how Russia must be stopped, Europe protected and the NATO recognized as absolutely indispensable.\u00a0 More men, more guns, more threats and, last but not least, more dollars for the US military-industrial complex.\u00a0 Russia, however, will remain unimpressed for a very simple reason: the US and the EU have already been at the maximal anti-Russian policies for many years already.\u00a0 In fact, the only anti-Russian policies which the AngloZionist Empire has not adopted yet are those which would hurt it more than they would hurt Russia<\/strong>.\u00a0 Put differently, from now on any anti-Russian sanctions adopted will, by definition, hurt the AngloZionists more than they will hurt Russia (which they still will, of course).\u00a0 The conclusion is obvious: the West simply cannot afford a sustained sanctions war against Russia.<\/p>\n

There is still a real danger out there<\/strong><\/p>\n

The problem with the AngloZionists is that they are arrogant and stupid enough to stumble into a variant of the Israeli “Samson Option<\/a>“: to strike out at their enemy even if that means bringing down the entire building on themselves.\u00a0 Contrary to many analysts, I don’t think that the Americans are actually dumb enough to deliberately start a war against Russia, much less so a nuclear one, but they are arrogant enough to paint themselves into a corner in which the only way to save face is to use military force.\u00a0 They are also capable of creating an extremely dangerous military situation in which even a firecracker can set off a shooting war (remember the insane USN posturing in the Strait of Hormuz or in the Taiwan Strait?).\u00a0 The Russians must absolutely remain aware of this danger and thus never assume that the Americans are rational or prudent.\u00a0 History proves that they are reckless and happy to create a situation resulting in war (US policies towards Japan before WWII are a perfect example).<\/p>\n

Now let’s look at the options for Novorussia<\/strong><\/p>\n

As I have mentioned already, the devil is in the details, but there are basically to main options for Novorussia\u00a0 1) full (de facto<\/em> and de jure<\/em>) independence 2) practical (de facto<\/em> but not de jure<\/em>) independence. I honestly believe that any other option which would fall short of de facto independence is simply impossible to achieve.\u00a0 The Novorussians will not live under Kiev’s police or military, they will not pay Kiev more than purely symbolic taxes and they will most definitely not accept any limitation of their cultural, linguistic and economic rights, including the right to do business directly with Russia.\u00a0 I consider that option as so unlikely, short of a massive and sustain bloodbath, that I won’t even consider it any further.\u00a0 So let’s look at the two remaining options.<\/p>\n

a) Full (de facto<\/em> and de jure<\/em>) independence: Novorussia<\/strong><\/p>\n

Advantages: Security: possibility to either join Russia or sign a mutual assistance treaty which could include the basing of Russian forces in Novorussia.\u00a0 This would provide the ideal and maximal protection from any future attacks from the Ukies.\u00a0 Economy: no taxes paid to Kiev, association with Russia, full access to the huge Eurasian market, work for the Russian industry, social rights paid for by Russia (as part of an aid package).\u00a0 The joy of having fully won and to not have to deal with the crazies in the western Ukraine.\u00a0 Full and total de-Nazification.<\/p>\n

Disadvantages: maximalist position which leave no face saving way out for the crazies in Kiev and Washington, major difficulties in being internationally recognized.\u00a0 This option also leaves all the rest of the ex-Ukraine in the hands of the AngloZionists and Nazis who will constantly sabotage, subvert and disrupt the life of Novorussia.\u00a0 There is a real chance that this might mean leaving cities and regions like Odessa, Dniepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Chernigov, Nikolaev and many other historically Russian part of the ex-Ukraine to whatever regime is in power in Kiev.\u00a0 Constant military danger: the current Ukie Minister of Defense promised a victory parade for the Ukie forces in Sevastopol, I kid you not.\u00a0 You can imagine what folks like him will have to say to an independent Novorussia.\u00a0 Key problem: this maximalist position leave no incentive whatsoever for Kiev to negotiate.<\/p>\n

b) Practical (de facto<\/em> but not de jure<\/em>) independence: “Ukraine v2”<\/strong><\/p>\n

Advantages: Novorussia already gets much more than what it wanted six months ago (see above).\u00a0 By preserving the fiction of a unitary Ukraine this solution leaves everybody a face saving way out and the major outside actors (Russia, US, EU, UN, OSCE) can all sign the deal and be declared guarantors.\u00a0 Also, if Novorussia is nominally part of the “Ukraine v2” then it gives the people of the eastern Ukraine (who are the richest, best educated majority of the Ukrainian population) a chance to counter-act and challenge the rule of Nazis in Kiev and maybe serve as a basis to bring down the current “Banderastan” and replace it instead with a “Ukraine v2”.\u00a0 Furthermore, a united Ukraine would be in a much better position to receive desperately needed international aid and money to rebuild.\u00a0 Considering that at least initially the Nazi freaks would remain in power in Kiev we can be pretty sure that they will further destroy even the little left of “Banderastan” and that, sooner or later, some regime change will occur.\u00a0 If the new regime in power is more or less sane, the eastern Ukraine could demand that those responsible for the mess be brought to trial and that a “truth and reconciliation” type commission be formed.<\/p>\n

Disadvantages: There is a real risk that the Poroshenko regime will fall and be replaced by a Iarosh dictatorship.\u00a0 Alternatively, southern Banderastan might break away from Kiev and for a “Kolomoiskistan”.\u00a0 Either way, the collapse of the Poroshenko regime risks sucking in the Donbass into a 2nd phase of the civil war with no option for overt Russian aid (covert aid would, of course, be provided).\u00a0 Even the notion of being represented by Nazi freaks in Kiev or to put up with a Ukie flag would be sickening for all those who died in defense of Novorussia.\u00a0 Furthermore, if the deal does not look solid or stable, far from coming back home from Russia, even more Novorussians would “vote with their feet” and emigrate to Russia.\u00a0 Nowadays, even the people of Crimea are still nervous and Russian politicians, including Putin, have had to constantly tell them “no, this time it’s forever, we will never abandon you, this is not something which will ever be overturned”.\u00a0 If the folks in Crimea are worried about their future even though they are now legally part of Russia, you can imagine how frightened and unsure the people of Novorussia would be in any kind of “association” with Kiev, even a purely formal one.<\/p>\n

These are only a few examples, there are many more which could be listed as advantages and disadvantages for both the independent Novorussia and the “Ukraine v2” option.<\/p>\n

My very highly speculative and personal guess<\/strong>
\n
\nRussia’s preferred option<\/strong><\/p>\n

I think that Russia would prefer a Ukraine v2 version.\u00a0 From the point of view of Russia, it has a lot of advantages (like forcing the “Ukraine v2” to adopt a completely neutral, non-aligned, status).\u00a0 As I have always said, Russia does not want or need the Ukraine.\u00a0 What it wants is a stable, neutral and prosperous Ukraine, and not because Putin and the rest of the folks in the Kremlin are saints or Ukrainophiles, but because that is for the objective best interest for Russia.\u00a0 The only thing Russia needed it already got: Crimea.<\/p>\n

To those of you who might be appalled at the notion of a less-than-fully-independent Novorussia or a “Ukraine v2” I will say that I very much doubt that Russia can impose such an outcome on the people of Novorussia.\u00a0 Sure, I am not naive, Zakharchenko and current Novorussian leaders got their power in a Moscow-backed change of leadership, so their ties to Moscow are very close, but the real power of Zakharchenko & Co. is that they have the support and consensus of the vast majority of the people of Novorussia, especially those fighting in the NAF.\u00a0 I never believed in a “sellout” of Novorussia (even though I always feared it), and I am confident that should such a “sellout” occur the only real force in Novorussia – the NAF – will never let it happen.\u00a0 Likewise any such “sellout” would trigger a severe political crisis for Putin.<\/p>\n

All this is to say that while I do believe that, given the choice and option, Putin and his advisors would prefer a de-facto<\/em> but not fully de-jure<\/em> semi-independent Novorussia inside a very loose “Ukraine v2” I do not believe that a “sellout” is either what they want or even something they could do: the ultimate guarantor of the de-facto<\/em> independence of Novorussia is not Putin or Russia, but the armed men of the NAF.
\n
\nNovorussia’s preferred option<\/strong><\/p>\n

What would the people of Novorussia and, especially, the NAF prefer?<\/p>\n

I honestly don’t know but I suppose that full independence is their preferred goal.\u00a0 Still, the situation is complex and there are very solid argument speaking against such an option and for a “Ukraine v2” (as there very are solid arguments speaking in favor of a fully independent Novorussia and against a “Ukraine v2”).<\/p>\n

One could also make a case that right now is not the correct time to make this choice.\u00a0 For one thing, nobody knows who will be in power in Kiev in just a few months.\u00a0 The winter is coming and the gas negotiations are becoming huge. Depending on what NATO does or does not decide, one of the other option might become a clearly better choice (just imagine NATO forces in Kiev!).<\/p>\n

We have to give time to time (French expression)<\/strong><\/p>\n

The examples of Korea, Cyprus, Kosovo, Transnistria and many others show that sometimes the only solution is not solution at all.\u00a0 The examples of Ireland or Chechnia show that some solutions are not at all the ones initially considered.\u00a0 Furthermore, I would want to add here that the real end-goal of Russia in the Ukraine is not getting Crimea or saving the Donbass, but to achieve real regime change in Kiev.\u00a0 Only that option would be an outcome which would really please Moscow and, if we keep that in mind, it is not at all clear to me that full independence for Novorussia is the best way to get there.\u00a0 And let us also ponder this question: what is better for the people of Novorussia, full independence from the Ukraine or real, lasting, regime change in Kiev?<\/p>\n

Just as in chess, time and timing are crucial pieces on the board.\u00a0 Those who over the past few months were hysterically accusing Putin of being a traitor who will backstab the Novorussians simply failed to appreciate the importance of time and timing in strategy.\u00a0 I am sorry to say that, no offense intended, but many people in the West have been raised, educated and trained in a culture of instant action-reaction, of immediate, almost kneejerk, responses.\u00a0 They are used to consider only short-term rapidly achievable options.\u00a0 Russia, and even more so China, are very different in this prospect.\u00a0 These two nations build their immense countries by slow and steady progress, not by short pushes.\u00a0 And though the Russian in the street might also prefer a fast solution to the Ukrainian problem, the folks in the Kremlin, especially former intelligence officers like Putin, fully realize that the “Ukrainian problem” is 400 to 800 years old, depending on how you define it (please read this<\/a> and this<\/a> if you are interested) and that it will not be solved in a few months.\u00a0 This is especially true considering that in the current situation the real cause and force behind the current Ukrainian crisis is the AngloZionist Empire.<\/p>\n

The real, “real”, goal of Putin (and Xi Jinping!)<\/strong><\/p>\n

As I have mentioned it here many, many times, the real “real” end-goal of Russia is not even regime change in Kiev: it is regime change on the planet.\u00a0 There is no doubt in my mind whatsoever that both Russia and China want to create a New World Order, but one very different one from the one envisioned by Bush, Fukushima, Obama and the rest of the AngloZionist 1%ers.\u00a0 Russia and China want a complete deconstruction of the AngloZionist Empire, they want to de-dollarize the world economy, the want an multi-polar international world order in which the rule of law is respected because it is understood that it is the most advantageous way to deal with problems.\u00a0 Russia see its future in her North and in Siberia, China wants its economy to go global, including the Far-East Asia and the Pacific region, Africa and Latin America.\u00a0 Russia also wants to role of Latin America and Central Asia to become more important because without these continents and regions there can be no truly multi-polar world.\u00a0 I would also argue that both Russia and China are rejecting the western civilizational model and it’s key dogmas (I won’t list them here lest I offend or infuriate new readers, but my longtime readers know exactly what I mean) and that they are both seeking to create not only a different world order but a different civilization.\u00a0 All this is much, much bigger than the Donbass or even the entire Ukraine.\u00a0 Yes, at this moment in time, the frontline of the global civilizational war is going straight across the Ukraine, but this is only one battle in a much bigger and wider war.<\/p>\n

Judging by some very telling statements of Zakharchenko in his recent press conference<\/a>, I am confident that he understands that very well.\u00a0 I have no doubt whatsoever that Putin does.<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n

The main conclusion I hope that you all will draw from the above is that we should not jump to conclusions and avoid making big sweeping judgments.\u00a0 If I have convinced you that this is a very tricky, complex and multi-dimensional issue then I am satisfied.\u00a0 If I get another deluge of one sentence slogans in favor of either option, then I failed.\u00a0 As I said, I am not sure that anybody really knows were this is all taking us.\u00a0 For one thing, the Ukies and their western patrons have reneged on every single agreement they have signed since last Fall and there is really no rational reason to expect them to stick to anything they might sign this time.\u00a0 Or maybe these negotiations will lead nowhere and the chaos and “somalization” of the ex-Ukraine will continue.\u00a0 The other day Putin said this: “no matter where the US gets involved they always achieve the same result: Libya<\/em>“.\u00a0 That is quite true and maybe a libyalization of Banderastan needs to happen before everybody comes to his\/her senses.\u00a0 Or maybe, this is terrible to say, is the situation more similar to the one in Chechnia in 1999 when a lot of people had to be simply physically eliminated, killed, before any solution could be found (sadly, but Nazis and Wahabis have that in common that the only way to deal with most of them is to kill them).\u00a0 I honestly don’t know.<\/p>\n

So let us keep an eye on this incredibly fluid, complex and dangerous situation and not pretend like it is simple and the solution obvious.<\/p>\n

Stay tuned, as always, I will do my best to keep you posted.<\/p>\n

Kind regards and many thanks,<\/p>\n

The Saker<\/p>\n

http:\/\/vineyardsaker.blogspot.mx\/2014\/09\/novorussia-independent-associated-or.html<\/a>\u00a0 <\/em><\/p>\n

SOURCE<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By The Saker An important disclaimer, caveat and clarification September 02, 2014 “ICH” – \u00a0First, I will begin by a clear disclaimer which I ask you all to please carefully read and then keep in mind: I personally am not advocating any option for the final status of Novorussia.\u00a0 That is for the people of Novorussia to decide and any option that they will chose I will support.\u00a0 Furthermore, at this point in time I am not even personally sure what option I would recommend if asked to do so simply because the devil is in the details, not the big words.\u00a0 What I propose to do below is to look at a number of issues related to this question but that analysis should not be interpreted as a personal endorsement of any solution. Second, I have carefully parsed the news out of Minsk, Novorussia and Russia and I am left with the strong feeling that nothing has really been decided, hence the apparent zig-zags and changing interpretations over the terms offered by the Novorussian delegation. Third, I urge everybody to be extremely cautious with Russian news sources including Russian TV channels and RT.\u00a0 Why?\u00a0 Because Russia has a major … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[11,127],"tags":[49,132,129,114],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/main.cse-initiative.eu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/274"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/main.cse-initiative.eu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/main.cse-initiative.eu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/main.cse-initiative.eu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/main.cse-initiative.eu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=274"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/main.cse-initiative.eu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/274\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":285,"href":"https:\/\/main.cse-initiative.eu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/274\/revisions\/285"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/main.cse-initiative.eu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=274"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/main.cse-initiative.eu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=274"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/main.cse-initiative.eu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=274"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}